Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Sun
2011-12


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
24 Belmont 100.0%   13   26 - 7 16 - 2 26 - 7 16 - 2 +12.0      +9.8 8 +2.1 112 71.2 87 +9.0 49 +10.2 1
115 Mercer 0.0%   21 - 11 13 - 5 21 - 11 13 - 5 +3.7      +0.4 159 +3.3 76 64.6 249 +3.6 120 +4.8 3
147 South Carolina Upstate 0.0%   18 - 12 13 - 5 18 - 12 13 - 5 +1.4      +0.1 167 +1.4 133 70.8 94 +2.3 140 +5.2 2
152 East Tennessee St. 0.0%   16 - 14 10 - 8 16 - 14 10 - 8 +1.3      -0.9 198 +2.1 111 66.1 209 +0.5 163 +0.2 5
178 Florida Gulf Coast 0.0%   14 - 17 8 - 10 14 - 17 8 - 10 -0.7      +1.8 124 -2.5 251 70.4 101 -1.5 191 -2.7 7
190 North Florida 0.0%   15 - 16 10 - 8 15 - 16 10 - 8 -1.6      +0.1 165 -1.7 225 68.8 131 +0.2 168 +0.6 4
216 Lipscomb 0.0%   12 - 18 8 - 10 12 - 18 8 - 10 -3.0      -1.6 221 -1.4 214 75.4 30 -3.0 212 -2.3 6
248 Jacksonville 0.0%   8 - 22 6 - 12 8 - 22 6 - 12 -5.0      -2.5 239 -2.5 252 68.3 145 -6.1 263 -5.2 9
260 Stetson 0.0%   8 - 20 6 - 12 8 - 20 6 - 12 -5.8      -1.3 212 -4.5 287 78.5 16 -6.1 264 -5.1 8
314 Kennesaw St. 0.0%   2 - 28 0 - 18 2 - 28 0 - 18 -11.4      -3.2 258 -8.3 335 62.0 288 -18.8 338 -20.6 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th
Belmont 1.0 100.0
Mercer 2.0 100.0
South Carolina Upstate 2.0 100.0
East Tennessee St. 4.0 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 6.0 100.0
North Florida 4.0 100.0
Lipscomb 6.0 100.0
Jacksonville 8.0 100.0
Stetson 8.0 100.0
Kennesaw St. 10.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Belmont 16 - 2 100.0
Mercer 13 - 5 100.0
South Carolina Upstate 13 - 5 100.0
East Tennessee St. 10 - 8 100.0
Florida Gulf Coast 8 - 10 100.0
North Florida 10 - 8 100.0
Lipscomb 8 - 10 100.0
Jacksonville 6 - 12 100.0
Stetson 6 - 12 100.0
Kennesaw St. 0 - 18 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Belmont 100.0% 100.0
Mercer
South Carolina Upstate
East Tennessee St.
Florida Gulf Coast
North Florida
Lipscomb
Jacksonville
Stetson
Kennesaw St.


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Belmont 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 13   0.1 1.5 10.9 48.8 38.5 0.3
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Belmont 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 41.1% 21.6% 7.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2%
Mercer 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
South Carolina Upstate 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
East Tennessee St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.0 100.0
2nd Round 41.1% 0.4 58.9 41.1
Sweet Sixteen 21.6% 0.2 78.4 21.6
Elite Eight 7.3% 0.1 92.7 7.3
Final Four 2.6% 0.0 97.4 2.6
Final Game 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2